Upon TiVo Review

I heard one of the St.Louis Cardinals players (Jimmy Edmonds) give credit to his team as being a bunch of idiots coming together after the Cards won The Series. He quickly gave credit to the Boston Red Sox of 2 years ago today for that nomenclature and simply called his squad a group of maniacs. I'm not a fan of the Cards, but you have to give credit where it's due.

Which is exactly what we're concentrating on with our revised Soggy Saturday Wagering Selections. Forget about the historical outcomes and trends. Let's stick with the basics and bond together as a team. Screw the experts and stat geeks. In honor of the 2004 Boston Red Sox, here's Mayor Carcetti's Idiots Guide to College Football Wagering for October 28, 2006:

There is no reason to doubt Drew Stanton under center when Michigan State (-6.5) travels to Hoosier Country to battle Indy. Not after Stanton's squad roared back from 35 down last week to beat N'Western. Contrarily, the Hoosiers enter this game after a 44-3 pounding at the hands of Ohio State. Stanton & State by double digits.

As long as Adrian Peterson is still injured, we're still grabbing Mizzu (-1.5) to win by at least a field goal over Oklahoma. Mizzu QB Chase Daniel finally meets America (and vice/versa).

We know it's a ton of points, but we're not playing Big 10 hoops. Which is exactly why Wisky (-21) will win by 30+ at home over Illinois. Is it me or has Wisky QB John Stocco been in college for at least 6 years? He reminds me of that guy from the late 90's Kentucky hoops teams with the last name Martinez. Don't even know his first name. But I do remember he had a John Holmes porn stache and it seemed like he played for 7 years. Our chant every time he made a big play in the tourney was "I'm 30 and I'm playing college ball (dunh, dunh), I'm 30 and I'm playing college ball. Regardless of whether Stocco is 30 or not, he'll lead his team to an easy cover.

You already know what we think about DJ Chuckie Weis and his bling. Let's Go All In on the Irish.

We love home underdogs so who better than Purdue, with their 3 losses all against ranked opponents, to exploit Old School Joe's Nittany Lions. The line is a field goal and both teams are 5-3. Which means Vegas has no clue what to do with this game. We're going to pick the better QB to decide our fortunes, which in this case is Purdue's Curtis Painter. Let's Boil Things Up.

You already know what we think about Florida in the WLOCP. The line will be 14 by kickoff, but we're definitely not changing sides. It's All Leak, All Day Long. Anyone want to take a wager as to the over/under on the number of arrests made for underage alcohol consumption over the entire weekend. I'll set the over/under at 100. We'd like anyone with connections in the Jax PD to forward us the final tally if possible.

Don't ask us why, but we have this very weird feeling that Miami (+5) will make a game of it on the road at Georgia Tech. Not that every season at The U isn't surrounded by chaos of the Criminal Intent, but this season is especially intriguing. Can headmaster Larry Coker keep his team from crumbling? Can QB Kyle Wright get his team to come together as one? We'll certainly find out in this tough road battle for the Canes. As much as we respect Tech QB Reggie Ball, this game has upset written all over it.

The line for the Wake Forest/UNC game is slowly inching toward double digits. Once again this isn't ACC hoops. Demon Deacons by 27.

Dare we take Ohio State minus 28 on the road in the MetroDome? After careful consideration, we're going to pass on this play out of respect for our newfound cohort Laurence Maroney, he of the 5th District's New England Patriots Union. Speaking of which, what happened to the crew down at the docks in the whole plot of The Wire? Are they going to randomly show up at some point out of nowhere? Why did the writers dedicate an entire season to Nikky and Uncle Frank only to see them written off the show like the plague? Why didn't The Port play a major part in Tommy Carcetti's mayoral campaign? Rap Sheet Readers need an answer to the last known sighting of our boy Nicholas Sobatka and whether his crew will ever be heard from again.

Never give Pete Carroll two weeks to prepare for a divisional foe. Maybe that wasn't the case in the NFL, but in the case of USC we know better. Oregon State is a decent team at 4-3. With a hobbled running back in Yvenson Bernard, they're a 1-6 squad at best. As long as the line hovers around the 10-11 point plateau, we're going with the Trojans to prove to the nation they haven't lost a step. They've simply reloaded much slower than expected.

Washington coach Ty Willingham has gotten a bad rap. Unfortunately, the bad press will continue when his 4-4 Huskies lose to 4-3 Zona State (-2) at home Saturday evening. Future NFL QB Rudy Carpenter will pick apart Ty's back Five. I'm sure he's a nice enough guy but we simply can't go against a QB that almost led his squad to a victory on the road at USC a few backs. Rudy. Rudy. Rudy.

The Texas line still being at 10 points has been bothering me all day long. There has to be some sort of Texas Shuffle going on by the Vegas Mafia because we know Texas Tech is good and they're at home and they're 5-3 but . . . This is the 7-1 Texas Horns we're talking about going against a team that historically plays no defense whatsoever, right? This is the 7-1 Horns whose only loss came in early September against #1 Ohio State, right? Screw the Texas Shuffle. ALL IN on Texas.

For more info on our next wager, scroll down to the Hallowed Wagers posting. To summarize: Spurrier Bad. Fulmer & Ainge good. Gotta like them Vols.

This is shaping up to be a great Hollowed Wagering Weekend. Have a Good Luck and a Good Dry (weatherly speaking of course) Day.

Mayor Carcetti's Hallowed Wagers

As we look forward to the final college football weekend in October, we have to comment on the Thursday night action in Blacksburg, Virginia. What a great overall performance by Virginia Tech as a 4 point underdog dismantling Clemson by a final margin of 24-7. Most scribes will talk about how Va Tech had the Hokieville Homefield advantage (which they certainly did). Other pundits will highlight the fact that Clemson and its stifling defense were due for a major letdown after crushing Georgia Tech last weekend 31-7. Did we mention Clemson held its homecoming last Saturday? Of course they were fired up to knock off a highly ranked opponent. They were fired up last weekend which means they weren't fired up for a Thursday night ESPN game seen by the entire nation (sans those in San Louis & Detroit watching the World Series)? The Mayoral Staff says excuses are for losers. (Spoiler alert for those individuals without HBO On Demand: Ex-Mayor Royce has taken his loss in full stride. Let his grace in defeat be a lesson to sore losers everywhere).

There are two reasons that Tech buried Clemson. The first was due to a man that we like to call Ore Ida, sophomore RB Brandon Ore. The bruising back ended up with 37 carries for 203 yds and 2 touchdowns. Those are Heisman like numbers. The second and soon to be most overlooked key to the game was the Tech defense. They made big plays in key situations and refused to let Clemson in the vicinity of the redzone after giving up an early TD. They also forced Clemson into ten, count 'em 10, 3 plays & punt. That is some serious defensive pressure. Combine these two factors with the strategy of head coach Frank Beamer (now in his 20th season) and the Hokies were the victors. It's that simple.

However, those that rest on their laurels are doomed to fail. Which is precisely why we are immediately turning our attention to the action on the college gridiron this weekend. Here are the Bills that Mayor Carcetti has decided to sign into Law:

Friday Nite Special: Conference USA has the college football spotlight this evening when UTEP travels to Oklahoma to take on the Tulsa Golden Canes. The wiseguys like the Over 55 because the 2 teams have combined to average 78 points in their last 3 "defensive" slugfests. We're looking to go in another direction and grab Tulsa minus 14. The Golden Canes are 7-3 ATS versus UTEP and we simply can't see UTEP stopping the other Canes' offense. Plus, UTEP QB Jordan Palmer is decent but not nearly as solid as brother Carson. The other Canes by 17.

I'm not a big fan of wagering on a game when both teams are ranked, but we can't help but think that #23 Missouri (-1.5) will defeat the Adrian Peterson-deprived 19th ranked Oklahoma Sooners at home. Our pick is going against the trends in more ways than one. Not only is Mizzu 3-7-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the two, they're also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 October home games. Combine that with the fact that the underdog is . . . blah, blah, blah. If numbers told us everything, we'd all win the lottery at least once in our lives. Instead, we're going with the fact that Oklahoma is relying on Allen Patrick at RB now that Peterson has gone down for the count. We also love the way Mizzu QB Chase Daniel (19 TD/5 INT) runs the offense. If you haven't heard of him then you will by Saturday night. The staff has conferred and unanimously decided Mizzu will win outright by double digits.

Have you seen my huge Super Bowl ring? Has anyone seen my huge, shiny Super Bowl ring? You gotta love Charlie Weis, sporting his bling, verbally badgering the BCS and their unmagical formula. Weis is pissed and his Notre Dame squad is going to take things out on their next opponent, NAVY. The line says 13, but I don't see it being that close. We're not even going to talk angles & trends etc. for this one (although I had no idea that Navy hasn't beaten ND in 42 attempts). Weis is pissed and his ND squad is going to take things out on Navy.

If you're a fan of angles & trends we have a few that you might be interested in regarding the two other Armed Forces with collegiate football programs. The overall winner of the BYU/Air Force game is 18-1 ATS, with The Force going 3-5 in the last eight. The Force is also 6-13 ATS the week prior to facing Army. Which leads us directly to the Tulane/Army game. Army is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 against The Wave, while they're also 7-2 against Vegas in their last nine at the friendly confines at West Point. Interesting statistical tendencies to ponder before calling Sully's Books.

(That's not to say that we don't pay attention to the angles. We wouldn't be somewhat semi-successful cappers if we failed to do so. We'd fade into wagering bolivian if we didn't take advantage of the fact that past results often predict future outcomes).

As the fall swiftly approaches the northeast, we can't think of anything better to do than to head to Jaxonville for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Never witnessed the festivities firsthand, but I've visited many Western Unions on a Saturday evening in late October with the main goal of getting some quick cash wired to the Jaxonville Police Department. For the 2006 version of the WLOCP we're going with Florida (9-1) minus 13 over Georgia (6-2). Florida has covered 6 of the last 8 times they've faced UGA. They're also 12-7-1 against the number following a bye week. Combine these trends with the fact that the outright winner of the WLOCP is 21-2-1 versus Vegas and we have ourselves a winner. These stats aren't the only reason we like the Gators, but they don't hurt. Quite simply, we like QB Chris Leak and his receiving corps to dismantle a very suspect UGA defensive backfield. We also don't like Georgia's QB, whomever he may be. I'm not a big fan of writing the following but here it is regardless: Go Gators. Let's see that defensive Swamp Chomp.

For the Saturday Nightcap let's stay down south and travel to Columbia, SC. We're big fans of road underdogs giving a figgie. Throw in Steve Spurrier (whom we despise), Eric Ainge, Phatty Fulmer and a team that thrives on the road and we absolutely have to go All In on Tennessee minus 3 at South Carolina. The Vols have only 1 loss on their resume, a 21-20 defeat at the hands of the aforewageredupon Gators. Stevie Spew shouldn't have left Florida for "greener" pastures in the NFL. Now he's going to have to deal with getting beaten by a man that stays true to his school, 15 year Vols Vet Head Coach Phillie Fulmer (in front of a national TV ESPN audience on Saturday evening no less). The game might be close, but the Vols defense will make a big play late and Ainge will be his usual unspectacular yet poised and precise self. Have I mentioned that the road team has managed to win outright and cover the line 9 straight times? Don't tell me the trend will be stopped prior to reaching double digits.

If you don't like any of the games listed above, here's the Bills that we're still considering turning into Law:

As much as we love Laurence Maroney, The Ohio State University minus 27 should put a serious pounding upon Minnesota. The Buckeyes offense keeps on rolling.

USC will celebrate the birth of former star QB Matt Leinart's child (is it a boy or girl? Who's the Mommy, Who's the Mommy?) by heading to Oregon State and winning by 17.

Texas will be very impressive when they hit the road to face Texas Tech. The line is hovering around 10. I thought it would be more like 20?

Our random upset special of the weekend is the winless Duke Blue Devils plus 9 9 at home over Vandy. We know this isn't college hoops but Duke will not go winless this season. Not saying they'll win this game outright, simply taking the free points.

Idaho is not going to know what to do with itself when they arrive in Honolulu to take on Hawaii minus 26. I know the line is high, but the PotatoMakers don't stand a chance against June Jones' offense. Warriors by more than 40.

And last but certainly not least, Do Not forget The New England Patriots giving 1 at Minnesota on Monday Night Football on ESPN. This has all the makings of an MNF Instant Classic.

Rainy Day At Shea

I will not lie, I became a supporter of the New York Mets during the MLB playoffs. That's not to say I jumped on the bandwagon because that would be a sin as a diehard Red Sox fan. But I definitely wanted the best baseball team New York City has to offer to advance to the World Series. Too bad Pedro Martinez couldn't pitch in the playoffs due to his torn rotator cuff. It would have been much sweeter to support the Mets with Petey on the mound. Even without Pedro, I still wanted the Mets to advance to the Series. You also have to respect the calm demeanor and leadership skills of skipper Willie Randolph. You can tell he has the respect of his team, and more importantly he is a classy guy (sounds like someone we know that runs things for Bob Kraft's Crew in Foxboro).

Last night's game featured Oliver Perez with a very gutsy performance on the mound, only to be outdueled by future Cy Young Award Winner Jeff Suppan (joke for Sox fans only) pitching slightly better in key spots. Endy Chavez made the best WebGem I've ever seen when he brought a home run that was 10 feet beyond the fence back onto the field of play and into his mitt (and managed to double up the RedBirds at first). Ultimately, the Mets were deflated by a ninth inning 2 run blast by Cards catcher Yadier Molina to give San Louis a 3-1 victory. I don't care whether the Tigers or the Cards win the World Series. But I hate Tony "I wear my sunglasses at night" La Russa so we'll go with the Tigers in 6.

Not to be outdone by the drama of the Mets loss, I failed to get my money to The Book in time, and of course the Virginia Cavaliers blanked UNC 23-0. Being a fiend for the action, I went with Utah giving a sixer to New Mexico. Utah was up 24-10 at the half. As the intensity of the rain increased at Shea, St. Louis took a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning while New Mexico stormed back and stole a 34-31 victory. Not a great start to the wagering weekend for the politician formerly known as Councilman Carcetti.

After going 9-3 last weekend, Mayor Carcetti and his staff are going to put the Thursday Nite Debacle behind us and build toward the future. We won't forget what happened, but we definitely don't expect to repeat it by an means on Saturday.

(As a side note, does anyone know why the next episode of The Wire isn't airing until October 29th? Am I missing something? Why is HBO choosing to have the new mayor and his crew take a Sunday off in their first week in office? I know the editors of the Rap Sheet aren't satisfied with this brief hiatus. Along with myself, my buddies Hokie and Teddy Ballgame are pissed. We are in the process of drafting a formal complaint to the corporate brass at HBO. They have some serious explaining to do).

But I digress. Calling into session our first meeting as Mayor of Baltimore, the following is the Legislation we are looking to pass in our first official weekend in office. (Please note that all trends referenced this week are courtesy of the true college football guru Phil Steele and his crew of stat rats).

Friday Night Lights: Don't think for a minute that 4th ranked West Virginia minus 22.5 will get caught looking beyond UConn to its Thursday Night Throwdown at sixth ranked Louisville on November 2nd. Not with a bye week to prepare for The Ville. Westie, 9-1 ATS in games played during the work week since 2002, is going to put a serious hurting on the depleted Huskies. RB Steve Slaton and WR Brandon Myles will each score in the first half en route to a 35-0 halftime lead. Westie will easily coast to a second half victory and cover. Did you know that UConn only rushed for 12 yards in this game last year?

Grind It Out: I'm not a big fan of wagering upon games in which both teams are ranked. This being a new regime and all, this is the ideal time for change so we're going with fifth ranked Texas minus 5 to go on the road and run over and around #17 Nebraska. Both schools are 6-1, but we all know that Texas would be undefeated had they not decided to improve their squad's long term objectives by playing Ohio State in early September. Look for RB's Jamaal Charles & Selvin Young to once again pound the defense of the Huskers. These two studs will open things up for frosh QB Colt McCoy (18 TD/3 INT) to hit Limas Sweed for a few big plays deep. If this line were double digits, I might be slightly hesitant. Texas is 4-2 ATS vs Nebraska in the last 6; we're Grabbing the Horns laying less than a sixer.

Speaking of top ranked Ohio State, they're favored by 30 at home against Indiana. We're staying away from this game, but don't be surprised if the Buckeyes win 49-7.

Stuck on Stocco: Because Stocco's Stuck on You. Road Underdogs are the flavor of this Saturday. We're not about to turn our back on 6-1 Wisky even though they're traveling to a suddenly "great" 5-2 Purdue team. We don't believe the Boilermakers' hype mainly because they don't have a defense even worth writing about. We'll stick with Wisky's savvy Stocco under center until he proves us wrong. Lay the 6.

Primed and Pissed: We like going with teams coming off a loss that shouldn't have been a loss (if that makes any sense). For this reason we're taking a 6-1 Missouri team coming off a 25-19 defeat at the hands of the slightly above average Texas A&M Aggies (also now 6-1) over Kansas State. Mizzu doesn't have any "stars" on offense. They play as a team; spreading the rushes & receptions around to the entire team. Most importantly they have a quarterback in Chase Daniel with a 3:1 TD/INT ratio. With a defense that crowds the line of scrimmage, this game is ideal for Mizzu to get their confidence back prior to hosting Oklahoma and traveling to Nebraska. There are way too many trends that contradict each other in this game so we're going with our gut and taking Mizzu minus 14.5 over KSU.

NFL Come A Callin: Unless Charlie Weis wins the PowerBall Jackpot, he's not leaving South Bend, or so he says. I've been waiting for the Irish program to get back to its glory days for a while now. Weis' Irish, who are 8-2 ATS coming off a bye in their last 10 games, are giving 13 at home against a potential QB-less UCLA Bruins team. Starter Ben Olson has an injured knee and there's something supposedly hindering backup (and probably starting) QB Patrick Cowan in the throat area. I refuse to wager against a Charlie Weis coached team at home that has had 2 weeks to prepare. UCLA is 13-6 ATS versus Non-Conference foes, but I cannot envision UCLA walking into South Bend and competing for 60 minutes against such a diversified offense. Brady Quinn (4:1 TD/INT ratio) spreads the ball around equally as 4 receivers have 25 plus recepts & 250 plus yds. Notre Dame wins in a blowout as WR Jeff Samardzija will have a big day for Tom Brady, I mean Brady Quinn.

(I've never been to a game in South Bend. Every single person I've talked to that has actually seen Touchdown Jesus in person has this look on their face like they've just gotten out of bed with Jennifer Aniston when they provide details of the trip/game etc. I gotta experience it firsthand. Here's hoping my boy T-Slats and his connections can make it happen before I fade into Bolivian).

We were going to write about the BC/FSU game but enough scribes in the Boston area have been writing about the game in depth all week. Also, in doing so it would cause family issues as my Almost-Mater (FSU) is taking on the Alma-Mater of my father and brother-in-law. We'll simply sit back and enjoy this 3:30 slugfest. It should be a good battle, regardless of who wins. Noles are favored by six if interested.

Similar to last week, we wanted to grab undefeated Michigan minus 12.5 at home over 5-2 Iowa, but Bubba The Mush loves the 'Wolves. Plus it's on at the same time as BC/FSU.

Can we turn our backs on undefeated and underdog Rutgers on the road at 6-1 Pitt? I think not. I know Pitt may be a better squad overall, but we'll take the karma of the 2006 Scarlet Knights as well as the free 6.5 points.

We also like another road dawg when 1-6 Colorado travels to the Adrian Peterson-less 4-2 Oklahoma Sooners. We know the Oklahoma offense won't fall apart completely, but it should struggle while learning to play without AP. If Vegas wants to give us a free 14 points, we might as well take the money and run.

If nothing is going your way by mid afternoon, and I know this may be tough to comprehend, drop a C-Note on 11th ranked California giving 23 at home against Washington in a 3:30 pm EST tilt. You'll have to look into what happened to Washington last Saturday and you'll see why we like the Golden Bears. Also, we know that Cal has always been able to light up the scoreboard. But they can actually play some defense this year (Seriously). I can't imagine what Washington will be able to accomplish on offense against such an improving defense without . . .

Sorry folks, you'll have to figure this one out on your own. The Mayor has a few political palms to grease for getting him elected. We will leave you with one final thought, which is the following:

"Research is the Key to a solid Wagering Weekend."

Weekend of the Road Warrior

Fellow college football fans beware. Do not place any wagers today. Wait until Saturday. If you're someone that likes to place your bets prior to any significant line movements, this is the weekend to wait until gameday prior to dialing The Book.

Yesterday, someone actually tried to warn me about the superstitious activity referenced above. Who are we kidding? If Friday the 13th is actually truth, rather than an urban legend, then we'd be more concerned with psychotic white guys with 24 inch blades than whether a football team is going to cover the line. Wager early and wager often if that's your style. But most importantly, don't dial Sully until you take a look at The Council's suggestions for this weekend.

Before we get to Saturday's action, let's touch on a few items that have recently caught our attention:

Our thoughts and prayers go out to the family & friends of deceased MLB pitcher Cory Lidle, regardless of whether he spent the last half of the past season in Yankeestripes. Another case of an adventurous individual taken too young.

Staying with the MLB, Julio Franco is still playing baseball. Are you kidding me. He was in his prime when I was a youth, and I'm 27. I'll never forget our neighborhood crew attempting to replicate his swing. Good for you Julio.

Although I've yet to play, the commercial for Tiger Woods PGA Tour Golf 2007 looks like it was digitally enhanced by Stevie Spielberg. We've come a very long way from Atari.

Great focus piece by Bob Costas on HBO's Inside the NFL this week on Kansas City rookie DE Tamba Hali. Won't ruin it for you but I will say we take too much for granted in our everyday lives.

I'm liking the Virginia Tech Hokies' road uniforms. Unique yet stylish.

On a similar note, the ESPN crew announcing last night's BC/VA Tech game brought up something that annoys myself and everyone that is a fan of Boston sports. The Newton City Council and the residents they represent only allow BC to have a Thursday Night ESPN home game once every 4 years. Give us a break. Granted, the area is family oriented and parents are concerned about their children and the decibel level that erupts in Chestnut Hill as a result of these weeknight proceedings. However, why not allow it every 2 years? Don't they realize how much cash money infiltrates the area as a result of these national TV games? Or are the aristocratic residents already rich enough that they don't care about the economic influx that ensues? My guess is the latter. Take your family on vacation for a few days if you can't stand the chaos that ensues. A compromise is sorely lacking in this regard. We need someone in a position of authority to step up and propose a reasonable solution to this travesty.

I will now stumble off my Mayoral Soapbox and get back to the task at hand. The pundits say parity, which Webster's defines as the quality or state of being equal or equivalent, is rampant this season in college football. I like to use the word unpredictability, which Webster's defines as lack of predictability, to summarize the 2006 college football season. Regardless, we're not about to give up. The following is a proposal from The Council in regard to the institutions that deserve a political contribution this weekend:

(We're not a big fan of "trends" but we'll toss them into the mix for those that are on the fence for certain games. Take each trend with more than a few grains of salt)

Friday Fright Nite Special: Let's start the weekend off with a solid road dog and grab surging 5-1 Pittsburgh minus 10.5 at 2-3 Central Florida in the first meeting between the two schools on the gridiron. The reason we like Pitt is very simple; Tyler Palko. The senior QB is a silent leader (did you know he's the #2 rated QB in Division I) that understands the nuances of the offense installed by head coach Dave "Porn Stache" Wannstedt. Contrarily, we don't trust UCF's senior QB Steven Moffett (6 TD/3 INT) running head coach George "Old School Blue" O'Leary's offense. Pitt knows the entire football world that doesn't enjoy MLB playoff baseball will be watching and analyzing their performace tonight. Although UCF is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 at home, they're also 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games vs the Big East. Take Palko & The Panthers.

We were going to grab UConn minus 4.5 at home versus Army, but UConn is an enigma wrapped in a fortune cookie. We also don't like going against the men in uniform the weekend after Columbus Day so we'll take a pass on this game.

We will not hesitate in going with 4-2 Purdue minus 7 at 2-4 Northwestern. Both of these teams are on a downward spiral so momentum won't come into play. Purdue, playing in its 3rd consecutive road game, lost to Iowa 47-17 last week after getting crushed by Nostra Damis 35-21 the week prior. Northwestern, losers of 3 straight, has been beaten by Div IAA powerhouse UNH 34-17 as well as Nevada 31-21 this season. 10th year Purdue head coach Joe Tiller will have a solid gameplan in place for this one. He'll hand the ball off to sophomore RB Kory Sheets early and allow emerging sophomore QB Curtis Painter to take his shots deep when available. For you Trendsetters out there, the home team is 3-10-1 ATS in the last 15 and NU is 3-6-1 ATS vs Purdue in the last 10 games. Did we forget to mention that Purdue was beaten by the Cats 34-29 at home last season? Hey bartender, a round of Boilermakers for the house.

We wanted to go with undefeated road dog Rutgers plus 2.5 heading to Annapolis to take on Navy (5-1) and win outright, but we remembered what we wrote above pertaining to Columbus Day and the men in uniform. I'll get down and give you 50 units for my transgression.

It's definitely not college hoops, which is excatly why we Fear the Road Turtle Saturday afternoon. The Council unanimously votes for Maryland (3-2) minus 3 over Virginia (2-4). Neither team has been remotely impressive thus far. Vegas feels this game is a coin flip, which is why it's been adjusted to a figgie. We trust the QB play of senior Sam Hollenbach more than the 5 man pitching rotation that Virginia has platooned. UVA will go with 18 year old frosh Jameel Seweel under center to begin this game. Something tells us that Ralphy "The Fridge" will have a more controlled gameplan for veteran Hollenbach than Al Gore, I mean Groh, will have for Barely Legal Seweel (I spoke to William A. Perry on the phone today. I was so tempted to call him The Fridge but I thought better of it. How many times do you think he's had to deal with that in his life? Infinite sounds about right).

I can't believe I'm saying this, and I may regret it Saturday night, but the number one team in the nation The Ohio State University has line value giving only 14 points on the road to a Michigan State squad in total disarray (lost thrice in a row). Ohio State is not USC, Texas, Oklahoma etc. They win games by playing sound defense, minimizing penalties in key situations and telling QB Troy Smith not to turn the ball over. They don't care if Smith throws 10 incompletions in a row so long as he doesn't throw an INT. Contrarily, MSU also has a solid QB in senior Drew Stanton. Stanton simply has no one to hand the ball off to or to throw the ball to. Starting RB Javon Ringer will be MIA for 2006 and the word on the street is the second leading receiver on the squad, senior WR Matt Trannon with 25 recepts, will be MIA on Saturday. Since taking the Spartans' reigns John L. Smith has neither won nor covered against The Eyes, and the home team is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games. We're laying the 14.

Home Dawg Anti-Trend Play of the Weekend: The Council loves SEC football. Wagering successfully on the conference is another beast entirely but that won't stop us from trying again. We always like grabbing teams that were caught looking ahead the weekend prior. Which is precisely why we like Auburn plus 1.5 over 6-0 Florida. Most surprising to us, this is the first game between the two SEC dynasties since 2002. Auburn is coming off a devastating 27-10 home loss at the hands of a solid 4-1 Arkansas team. I'm not sold on this whole Chris Leak/Tim Tebow QB rotation of Florida. It has worked great so far, mainly because teams haven't had time to gameplan for it. Tommy Tuberville doesn't hold any punches when it comes to defensive preparation. His LB's will be overprepared for the offensive trickeration. This game will come down to senior RB Kenny Irons. If the Iron stays hot, Auburn vault into the AP Top 5. Trends: Auburn 2-7 ATS vs Florida last 9. Florida 12-5 ATS prior to bye week. Roll Tide, I mean Tigers.

If you want to stay away from this game, at least take the Under 38. I can't envision more than 30 points on the board when the final gun is fired.

Here's a few Quick Pix that might intrigue:

5-1 Wisky minus 8 at home over 2-4 Minny. Is is me, or has Wisky QB John Stocco been playing college football since 2000? He reminds of that guy on the Kentucky hoops team with the pornstache Martinez.

My almost-mater FSU Noles (-21.5) will put a serious hurting on Duke in Durham, NC to make up for past/future college hoops blowouts at the hands Coach K's Blue Devils.

Don't look now but Benny Rugglesburger's Miami of Ohio is winless at 0-6. I reckon they'll easily cover the 7.5 at the the Buffalo "don't call us Bills" Bulls.

We're tempted to lay the 5.5 when Michigan travels to Penn State for an 8pm EST kickoff. Something tells me this game won't be decided by a figgie. If my brother's buddy Bubba The Mush wasn't such a huge Michigan fan, we might go All In on Michigan.

And if all else fails, wait until Sunday morning and take the opposite of whoever Ron Jaworski picks during NFL Countdown.

Columbus Day Weekend Wagering

The baseball playoffs are upon us. The artist formerly known as T.O. will return to Philadelphia Sunday afternoon, whereupon expletives and arrests of Philly fans shall run rampant. The sport formerly known as the NHL has opened its new season. Martin Scorsese's Southie Mob drama "The Departed" has finally hit theatres. And George Dubya and his lackeys don't want American banks to allow us to wager online via offshore LEGAL websites. Vegas and Atlantic City are fine. But anything not controlled by the Bush Mafia and U.S. Gov't is not. I have no doubt we're smarter than GW and we shall figure out a way to outsmart his administration.

However, The Council is only concerned with one thing, College Football Saturday. We haven't fared so well this season on the college gridiron. The NFL has treated us much better. But we are college football fans first and foremost. It's time for us to step up and reel off a college wagering Weekend Coup. George Dubya has us motivated. Let's get to the action:

The ESPN Gameday hype will be on the big matchups this Saturday (which we'll cover in a bit). But we can't forget about the little guys with line value.

That's why we'll start things off small with the South Florida Bulls minus 6.5 at home versus UConn on Saturday night. USF (3-2) is very athletic and looking to avenge a 31-16 loss in Storrs last season. Throw into the equation falling slightly short against a very sound Rutgers squad last Friday nite and we like Da Bulls. We don't think the .500 Huskies can travel down to Florida and keep it close for the full 60 minutes. USF QB Matt Grothe reminds us of Donovan McNabb when he was at The 'Cuse. UConn has been impressive thus far, but this is definitely not college hoops.

Sticking with the college basketball theme, let's head to the Great Midwest for a noon contest between a couple of 2 win 3 loss schools; Indiana at Illinois. Both of these teams could end up going winless for the remainder of the season. Neither squad is much to write home about. I'm going with the guru Phil Steele in this one as the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine. Combine that stat with the fact it's homecoming in Champaign, and with IU embarrassing llinois 36-13 last season; we like Illinois (minus 8) to win by double digits.

(As a side note, Kirk Dorkstreet and his crew are correct in that NC State is showing some true grit right now. Stuffed at the Noles goal line, State gave up a 99 yard scoring drive. Yet they have come right back on FSU to get within 3 to start the 4th. We'll see how this turns out, but State hasn't given up. They're showing Jimmy Valvano heart right now.)

We're going against The Steele in the Oklahoma State minus 2.5 at Kansas State 3:30 pm EST game. The home team has gone 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8, but the two haven't met since 2003, a 38-34 win by OSU against 22nd ranked KSU. Both teams have very young coaches and neither school has played a tough schedule thus far. Maybe it's because we don't trust new KSU frosh QB Josh Freeman, or maybe it's because we love the athletes of OSU. Either way, we'll lay the points on the road.

For sentimental reasons we're taking Tulane plus 2.5 at home versus Rice. The entire N'Orleans area is slowly rebuilding, with the Saints and Tulane a huge part of that process. The Council likes the Green Wave to win outright.

(Jump ball in the endzone. Touchdown, NC State up by 4. Raleigh, NC is frantic right now).

Michigan State plus 15 at the big house in Ann Arbor versus Michigan has the potential to be a blowout. Something tells us that MSU senior QB Drew Stanton will put on an impressive showcase this Saturday. Plus we know my brother's buddy Bubba will be grabbing Michigan, and he's a mush.

Over 55 in the Penn State at Minnesota game. Either this game will end up 13-10 or 42-35. We're going with the latter.

(NC State driving for the Go Away touchdown with 7 minutes left in the 4th, up by 4. Go Wolfpack. Go Wolfpack).

We like Oklahoma grabbing 4 over Texas. The Red River Shootout is on national TV and will be played in Dallas, so neither team truly has homefield advantage. You absolutely cannot predict, with good faith, how this game will unfold. Take a pass and simply enjoy the game. But if you have to make a play, take the Sooners.

We're taking a hard look at Texas A&M giving 2 on the road at Kansas. No rhyme or reason. Simply looking for the Aggies to reach 5-1 and KU to fall to 3-3.

If you like playing the Over, do so in the Central Michigan/Toledo game. No defense shall be played whatsoever.

4-1 California minus 4.5 at home is for real against a 5-0 Oregon squad on the road that is fraudulent. (This is our only Pac-10 play for this weekend. I'm taking a bye week on attempting to figure out this conference . . . interception by NC State with 2:27 remaining while clinging to a 24-20 lead. State takes a knee, another knee. State wins. Bobby Bowden looks very, very sad).

If anyone can help us out with the wacky SEC, please abide. In no particular order, here's how we see a few of the conference games going down:

LSU plus 2.5 is somehow going to march into Gainesville (during homecoming nonetheless) and take out UF. We don't like Chris Leak.

We can't see Auburn (minus 15) allowing Arkansas to hang around too long.

College hoops comparison alert: Alabama treating Duke like second class citizens feels good. These games are payback for all the blowouts the Duke hoops squad has bestowed upon lesser teams. The line is almost 30, but The Tide should be covering well before halftime.

Georgia taking out Tennessee in primetime on Saturday night. This game will come down to a field goal. Current line has the Dawgs getting two and a half. We like the Home Dawgs.

After perusing the Vegas Book, the plays listed above have caught our attention. No one ever said the wagering game is easy and this Saturday will be no different. The Council would like to wish each and everyone a safe and profitable Columbus Day Wagering Weekend. And if you get down on your luck, there's always Tom Brady and the Pats to ease your concerns on Sunday afternoon.