Terrell Owens . . . my fault. It's been ingrained in my head the past few days. What did we want to talk about? Oh yeah, College Football Saturday. This week we're looking for one simple thing; line value. If you think the Vegas Mob has set the line too high or low, regardless of record and where the game is being played, take the game. The oddsmakers can actually be wrong once in a while.
Things got off to a great start last night. The BYU Mormons somehow managed to go on the road and stop the nation's longest winning streak when they took out the TCU Horny Frogs. And you knew the Auburn/South Carolina battle down south was going to come down to the wire. Let's hope the trend continues on Saturday. Unlike the NYSE, let's hope the following selections can only increase our bankrolls, with no chance of a downturn:
Before we get to Saturday, there's always the token 8 pm Friday night play. Rutgers minus 4 at South Florida should be a decent game. The Scarlet Knights are going with the Deuce McAllister/Reggie Bush offense in solid RB's Ray Rice and Brian Leonard. Both should find a home somewhere on Sunday afternoon in the future. We know Rutgers is on the road and they've never had the pressure of being 4-0. However, USF is playing a frosh at QB named Matt Grothe. This isn't a frosh starting at a national powerhouse. This is USF. Knights by double digits.
We're liking road dog Virginia minus 5 at Duke. Yes, Virginia does have a frosh at QB named Jameel Sewell. But so does Duke in Thaddeus Lewis, who returns after getting concused by the Va Tech Hokies a few weeks back. Neither of these teams is anything to write home about. Virginia has something that Duke does not; head coach Al Groh. Big Al has prepared worse squads for much tougher road games. He'll rely on his defense and keep Sewell to a limited playbook. Never liked the man, but here's hoping Mr. Groh can prove his worth to the Cavs faithful.
If history tell us anything it's that in the crazy MAC, home teams are at a tremendous advantage. It is for this reason that we are going with Ohio minus 6 at home versus Bowling Green. Both teams enter the contest at 2-2 and both have also been very inconsistent this season. I don't see this game coming down to a field goal so let's take the value of homefield advantage and go with the Bobcats.
We want to take Charlie Weis' Notre Dame Fighting? Irish minus 14 at home against Purdue, but after last weeks debacle . . .
Washington State plus 16.5 is another pick that will take some stones. Everyone knows USC reloads every single year under the Pete Carroll regime. I'm not saying Wazzu will win the game outright, or even have a shot in the fourth quarter. What we are saying is they'll hang around deep into the game at home. Judging from their past performances, they have the athletes to hang around, Teddy KBG style, with USC.
Some call this game an upset waiting to happen. I call it line value at its best. California minus 9 goes on the road to Oregon State. Of all the teams I've watched this season, other than The Ohio State University, Cal has the most athletes on both sides of the ball. Which is precisely what you need in college football. The experts don't think Cal can continue at such a frantic pace; scoring 42, 42 and 49 in their last 3 games. The talking heads also think Cal will be looking ahead to their ABC primetime battle with Oregon next Saturday. However, head coach Jeff Tedford should be savvy enough at this point in his career to realize that you can't get the national acclaim by looking ahead. Here's hoping Cal scores another 40 ounces of Old English.
Here we go again taking another road underdog. In this case it's the 'Bama Crimson Tide plus 14.5 traveling to Gainesville to battle the Florida Gators. This line has jumped a few points since it opened so it seems Joey Publica thinks Florida is going to handle Bama with ease. The key to this game comes down to the composure of new 'Bama starting QB John Parker Wilson. Although I would much prefer if he simply called himself John Wilson, we still like the poise under pressure that he's shown in the pocket this season. If Wilson can handle the deafening noise down in the Swamp, Bama has a chance to win this outright. If he throws a few early incompletions and INT's, this game will turn into a blowout very early. It's all on the shoulder of John Parker.
On the surface it seems as if there's no way the most highly touted game of the weekend can have line value. Yes, we're talking about Ohio State at home dog Iowa plus 7. Once again, when examining the QB play of each team, we have no doubt that Iowa senior QB Drew Tate can keep his team in the game. The 70,000 plus in attendance at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City will be a huge factor (not that Ohio State isn't used to traveling into hostile territory) and will give Tate and the offense enough confidence early to convince them they can pull off the outright upset. We can definitely envision this matchup coming down to a 4th quarter field goal. Even though it will be overhyped to the fullest until the 8pm EST kickoff, we'll take the free seven points and hope that the chants of DREEEEEEWWWWWW will be echoing throughout the stadium for the full 60 minutes.
And for our last play of the day, we think the hype of the game listed above will allow Michigan minus 10 (the other undefeated Big 10 squad) to jaunt into Minneapolis and take out the Gophers unnoticed. The offense of the Wolves will prove to be too much for Minny. This game might not be a huge blowout, but a double digit victory, led by QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart, shouldn't be too difficult a task. Outside of alumni of each institution and college football junkies like us, most of the country doesn't even know this game exists (kickoff 8pm EST). I don't even think Vegas realizes it. Now that I think of it, let's keep this play to ourselves so as to not wake the wiseguys. Wouldn't want this line climbing too much.
There you have it. Our Saturday Line Value plays of the day. Let's hope this Saturday is better than last. We lost a few campaign contributions on last Saturday's action.
Things got off to a great start last night. The BYU Mormons somehow managed to go on the road and stop the nation's longest winning streak when they took out the TCU Horny Frogs. And you knew the Auburn/South Carolina battle down south was going to come down to the wire. Let's hope the trend continues on Saturday. Unlike the NYSE, let's hope the following selections can only increase our bankrolls, with no chance of a downturn:
Before we get to Saturday, there's always the token 8 pm Friday night play. Rutgers minus 4 at South Florida should be a decent game. The Scarlet Knights are going with the Deuce McAllister/Reggie Bush offense in solid RB's Ray Rice and Brian Leonard. Both should find a home somewhere on Sunday afternoon in the future. We know Rutgers is on the road and they've never had the pressure of being 4-0. However, USF is playing a frosh at QB named Matt Grothe. This isn't a frosh starting at a national powerhouse. This is USF. Knights by double digits.
We're liking road dog Virginia minus 5 at Duke. Yes, Virginia does have a frosh at QB named Jameel Sewell. But so does Duke in Thaddeus Lewis, who returns after getting concused by the Va Tech Hokies a few weeks back. Neither of these teams is anything to write home about. Virginia has something that Duke does not; head coach Al Groh. Big Al has prepared worse squads for much tougher road games. He'll rely on his defense and keep Sewell to a limited playbook. Never liked the man, but here's hoping Mr. Groh can prove his worth to the Cavs faithful.
If history tell us anything it's that in the crazy MAC, home teams are at a tremendous advantage. It is for this reason that we are going with Ohio minus 6 at home versus Bowling Green. Both teams enter the contest at 2-2 and both have also been very inconsistent this season. I don't see this game coming down to a field goal so let's take the value of homefield advantage and go with the Bobcats.
We want to take Charlie Weis' Notre Dame Fighting? Irish minus 14 at home against Purdue, but after last weeks debacle . . .
Washington State plus 16.5 is another pick that will take some stones. Everyone knows USC reloads every single year under the Pete Carroll regime. I'm not saying Wazzu will win the game outright, or even have a shot in the fourth quarter. What we are saying is they'll hang around deep into the game at home. Judging from their past performances, they have the athletes to hang around, Teddy KBG style, with USC.
Some call this game an upset waiting to happen. I call it line value at its best. California minus 9 goes on the road to Oregon State. Of all the teams I've watched this season, other than The Ohio State University, Cal has the most athletes on both sides of the ball. Which is precisely what you need in college football. The experts don't think Cal can continue at such a frantic pace; scoring 42, 42 and 49 in their last 3 games. The talking heads also think Cal will be looking ahead to their ABC primetime battle with Oregon next Saturday. However, head coach Jeff Tedford should be savvy enough at this point in his career to realize that you can't get the national acclaim by looking ahead. Here's hoping Cal scores another 40 ounces of Old English.
Here we go again taking another road underdog. In this case it's the 'Bama Crimson Tide plus 14.5 traveling to Gainesville to battle the Florida Gators. This line has jumped a few points since it opened so it seems Joey Publica thinks Florida is going to handle Bama with ease. The key to this game comes down to the composure of new 'Bama starting QB John Parker Wilson. Although I would much prefer if he simply called himself John Wilson, we still like the poise under pressure that he's shown in the pocket this season. If Wilson can handle the deafening noise down in the Swamp, Bama has a chance to win this outright. If he throws a few early incompletions and INT's, this game will turn into a blowout very early. It's all on the shoulder of John Parker.
On the surface it seems as if there's no way the most highly touted game of the weekend can have line value. Yes, we're talking about Ohio State at home dog Iowa plus 7. Once again, when examining the QB play of each team, we have no doubt that Iowa senior QB Drew Tate can keep his team in the game. The 70,000 plus in attendance at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City will be a huge factor (not that Ohio State isn't used to traveling into hostile territory) and will give Tate and the offense enough confidence early to convince them they can pull off the outright upset. We can definitely envision this matchup coming down to a 4th quarter field goal. Even though it will be overhyped to the fullest until the 8pm EST kickoff, we'll take the free seven points and hope that the chants of DREEEEEEWWWWWW will be echoing throughout the stadium for the full 60 minutes.
And for our last play of the day, we think the hype of the game listed above will allow Michigan minus 10 (the other undefeated Big 10 squad) to jaunt into Minneapolis and take out the Gophers unnoticed. The offense of the Wolves will prove to be too much for Minny. This game might not be a huge blowout, but a double digit victory, led by QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart, shouldn't be too difficult a task. Outside of alumni of each institution and college football junkies like us, most of the country doesn't even know this game exists (kickoff 8pm EST). I don't even think Vegas realizes it. Now that I think of it, let's keep this play to ourselves so as to not wake the wiseguys. Wouldn't want this line climbing too much.
There you have it. Our Saturday Line Value plays of the day. Let's hope this Saturday is better than last. We lost a few campaign contributions on last Saturday's action.
